Deal or No Deal: Trump’s Ukraine Plan Spells Defeat

Ma-Sadio Faye

Dec 3, 20243 min read

Things don't look so good.

The bells of betrayal have seemingly rung for Ukraine since November 7th, 2024, when former President Trump comfortably secured re-election. Trump, an often critic and sometimes outright enemy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, even before war broke out with Russia in 2021, has long been a source of unease for Kyiv. Surprisingly, among the many criticized acts of Mr. Trump, his 2019 decision to withhold military aid from Ukraine to pressure Zelensky into investigating then-presidential candidate Joe Biden has all-but-faded from public discourse in the United States but serves as a stark reminder to Ukrainians of how bad things were before.

Nothing has given Kyiv any confidence ahead of this new term either. Mr. Trump has tapped Keith Kellogg, former National Security Advisor whose previous plan to end the war was deeply unpopular in Ukraine, to serve as a Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia.

This is a disastrous situation for Ukrainians on all fronts. There are past issues—House Republicans have fought bitterly, tooth and nail against sending any more weapons or aid. There are present issues— Mr. Trump has promised to end the war in "24 hours," a thinly veiled capitulation. While I hope it's also an exaggeration, the demand implies that Ukraine must hand over its sovereignty (as well as its land, decision-making ability, and power) on a silver platter to Mr. Putin. For Kyiv, any deal involving surrendering those isn't peace— it is surrender. And, of course, there are future issues— the status of the counteroffensive which is running out of men and weapons faster than Mr. Biden can send aid, especially in the lame-duck period of his Presidency.

A disconnect between Kyiv and Washington has steadily grown over the past two, nearly three, years. Zelensky has framed the war as an existential fight for democracy and a battle for survival itself. In contrast, the United States has treated it as a policy debate between Democrats and Republicans, with even sub-divisions between the Democrats and Republicans themselves, as House Republicans and progressive Democrats lead the opposition against sending more aid or pushing for negotiations unfavorable to Ukraine. The stark disparity in stakes has already led to devastating consequences and will grow even worse under Trump’s leadership.

The global stage only complicates the picture further. In the Global North, countries like the United States, France, Germany, and the broader European Union have largely maintained strong support for Ukraine, socially, politically, and economically. Russian athletes and performers have been banned from competitions like the Olympics and Eurovision. Many states have cut or limited ties with Russia, and most are planning on how to reduce their reliance on Russian oil. However, political divisions have begun to emerge. Like the example of the United States, parties have begun to split on the issue of aid. In contrast, apathy—or outright support for Russia— dominates much of the Global South. Nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, like Mali, India, and Venezuela, have received aid, arms, and troops from Russia. This has only bolstered Moscow’s influence and created a geopolitical fault line that Kyiv has unsuccessfully combatted in the past couple of years.

So what is Ukraine to do? The situation is grim— without a doubt, Mr. Trump will threaten to cut aid to Ukraine unless they agree to a ceasefire of some sort or negotiations with Russia, setting a dangerous precedent for future countries involved in a conflict and receiving aid from the United States. It gives an air of puppetry if the US can force any country into acting against their self-interests.

European countries have already declared that without US support, their support will wane as well. This will almost certainly embolden Mr. Putin to launch new offensives, capture Ukrainian territories, and push forward. With Mr. Trump's proud endorsement of isolationism, the United States' role as the world's police officer will slowly begin to shrink.

For now, Ukraine’s best hope may be to conserve its resources and force Russia into a frozen conflict until a new American president is elected.