Nikki Haley finally dropped out of the Republican Presidential primary. Now, I don’t say this with enthusiasm. I was hoping more Republicans would have relinquished their support for a man who has 91 charges, 4 indictments, and a horrible sense of morality. However, time and time again, the MAGA movement has shown that their unwavering support is for one person and that person only: Trump.
Haley was by no means a candidate I myself supported; however, in a case against Trump, she was undoubtedly the lesser evil. When I say she finally suspended her campaign, it is because I expected it rather than because I am happy about it - it was becoming more and more of a longshot campaign every day. Trump was predicted to be the nominee long before the Iowa caucus because, even though he has been out of office for three years, the momentum around him almost gives the impression that he is still an incumbent.
But, with Haley out, the question arises: Where do her voters go?
Despite Trump winning a great majority of the delegates in the primaries, Haley still gained around 30 to 40% of votes in many states. When we look at states like Utah, where she had 42.7% of the total vote on Super Tuesday, it became clear that many republicans do in fact want a different choice for their nominee. Not to mention her wins in Vermont and Washington DC, although such states unfortunately don’t make that much of a difference big-picture, as these areas are traditionally blue.
Needless to say both Trump and Biden are going to need to attract some Haley voters to their side - they are wasting no time. Both candidates have put out social media posts encouraging Haley supporters to join their cause after her suspension announcement on Wednesday.
It may be hard to pinpoint exactly which candidate these voters will circle come November; however, when looking at the options they have and analyzing exit polls conducted by media outlets on both sides, it is my opinion that it will truly be split.
Donald Trump previously claimed that Nikki Haley voters should “be permanently barred” from his “Make America Great Again” movement. This, obviously, has not aged well with most Haley supporters. An exit poll conducted by CBS in Virginia on Tuesday shows that 60% of Haley voters used their vote as “a vote against Trump”. If such a majority of Haley voters, across multiple states, are voting against an opponent rather than for an opponent, it should be easy to presume that they won’t be backing Trump in November, right?
Kind-of.
The problem I foresee is that these voters come from two categories: Republican or Independent.
Here is my thesis: the traditional Republicans will end up supporting Trump. Many of this group are one or two-issue voters, and I think a big focus will be, per usual, the economy and immigration. Even if they aren’t that type of voter, I hold that they will still back Trump, as they won’t be inclined to support a President who would not offer them anything that aligns with their views. In many spots, Haley and Trump share similar views on issues - they just go about saying it differently.
That being said, there is a specific type of Republican, a “never-Trumper” per se, who I believe is an important 2024 voter for Biden. Exit polls in North Carolina, Virginia, and California show that over 30% of GOP primary voters do not guarantee voting for Trump in the general election. These are seemingly the people who revoked support for Trump after January 6th, his multiple indictments, or for any other reason one could think of. If Joe Biden commits to reminding the public about January 6th, and the importance of preserving democracy, he could be an attractive option for this type of voter.
Of course, some Haley supporters may opt to just not vote in November, but my consensus is that Biden has to worry about this situation far more than Trump does. Trump has momentum in his base and his voters are enthusiastic to go to the polls, something Biden does not have with a majority of his party. Picking up Haley voters, or any non-Democrat voters, can and will inch him that much closer to reelection.
The biggest and arguably most interesting type of Haley voter is the independent. She largely focused on and appealed to more moderate voters, and has had a big showing of support from them across multiple states with open primaries. It is these voters who decide an election: they aren't tied to any party, and are “up for grabs”. As I said before, if Joe Biden commits to making this general election about democracy, many of these voters may end up voting for him.
Now, there is one last option for undecided voters that may be dangerous for both Trump and Biden - Third Parties.
I think some Haley voters, amongst others, will be turning to third-party or independent candidates this year. These voters would probably belong to the independent category of Haley supporters, but that is not to say a Republican wouldn’t make the switch. Granted, many Americans know it is virtually impossible for these candidates to win due to the electoral college; however, they still have the ability to take votes away from Democrats and Republicans. If a Haley supporter dislikes both party options, I don’t see any reason for them not to seek out another candidate, such as RFK Jr, rather than not voting at all.
Overall, there are many options a Haley supporter can take - one may even look at this as a guide. These reflect the way I think her categories of voters will go, but it isn’t definite.
As you can see, Haley’s suspension demonstrates a complicated situation. It is still only March, and things will change every day up until November 5th. Perhaps Haley will endorse Trump, and that would change this entire analysis. Regardless, it will be interesting to look back in November and see if I was accurate…
Sources
Comentários