In the increasingly polarized state of American politics, third party candidates have become a source of major concern for the stability of the political system. While their supporters may justify such spoiler candidacies as a way to "energize the democratic debate", the social science evidence instead suggests that third party spoilers may endanger representative government (Duverger, 1954; Rae, 1967).
Despite the lack of success of third parties in the United States, solid evidence within the political science literature shows that there are strong structural incentives built into the winner-take-all election system that discourage third party candidacies. Political scientists have for a long time acknowledged that this electoral system promotes a strong tendency towards a two-party system, as voters rally around the two most competitive candidates for fear of "wasting" their vote (Duverger, 1954; Jackman, 1987).
In the 2020 presidential election, the total vote share of third party candidates Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green) was only 3.3% out of all votes cast - a virtually irrelevant result that highlights the difficult odds against such outsiders (Federal Election Commission, 2021). An examination of down-ticket races throughout the states has also revealed that third parties and independents almost never receive more than single digit shares of votes and are rarely even competitive against the two major parties (Rae, 1967; Federal Election Commission, 2021).
"The fact of the matter is that these third party spoilers are almost certain not to win, but they can have a devastatingly negative impact on democracy just by being on the ballot", according to political scientist Dr. Emily Kaufman from the Hoover Institution. "By splitting the opposition and stealing viable votes from the major party candidates, they often inadvertently deliver unwarranted, unearned victories to their favored major party candidate - a process that subverts the popular will and weakens public trust in the entire system" (Personal Communication, May 25, 2024).
History is indeed filled with examples of third party candidates having a disproportionate and often negative impact on election outcomes. In the 2000 presidential election, for example, the selfish and vainglorious Green Party nominee Ralph Nader cost Democratic challenger Al Gore enough votes in a few swing states to hand the election on a narrow and bitter Electoral College victory to Republican candidate George W. Bush (Winger, 2001). As acknowledged by political scientists since the immediate aftermath of the election, this stolen victory has come at a huge long-term price, as it hardened Democratic majorities, paralyzed the Republican agenda for years, and left the conservative movement deeply divided (Duverger, 1954; Jackman, 1987).
Likewise, the intensely corrosive and destructive impact of third party spoiler candidates has been demonstrated in a vast array of down-ballot races as well. In 2018’s Arizona Senate election, for instance, Green Party nominee Angela Green was widely recognized as a central factor in Republican Martha McSally's narrow and catastrophic loss to radical leftist Kyrsten Sinema (Federal Election Commission, 2021). This pernicious process has been repeated all across the nation, with independent or minor party candidates diverting critical votes from principled challengers and delivering unearned, undeserved wins to their radical opponents.
“When these fringe players cynically manipulate the democratic process for their own selfish purposes, they can threaten the expression of the popular will and weaken public confidence in the system as a whole,” said Dr. Kaufman in exasperation, , (Personal Communication, May 25, 2024). Thus, third parties are simply parasitic by nature, and we must combat them vigorously.
Perhaps most insidiously, the widespread impact of third party spoilers can potentially undermine the integrity and legitimacy of election results themselves. By diverting support from credible, viable candidates for office, these third party and independent challengers can swing outcomes in closely contested, fiercely competitive races - and deliver wins to candidates who might not have earned a genuine, lasting popular majority.
The American system of representative democracy itself is fundamentally compromised when the desires of voters are undermined by the existence of third party spoiler candidates. According to Dr. Kaufman, it is important for voters to receive real and genuine choices between realistic candidates from legitimate parties , “...not a spoiler candidacy that cheapens the electoral process and delivers power to those who lack a true popular mandate” (Personal Communication, May 25, 2024).
Sadly, this corrosive process has been repeated again and again, with third party hopefuls playing a central role in swinging the results in hotly contested, closely fought elections. In 2016’s presidential race, for instance, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein together received over 5 million votes - more than enough to surpass the narrow margins separating the Democratic and Republican candidates in several crucial swing states (Federal Election Commission, 2017). In each of these cases, the potential implications of these fringe candidacies in denying voters their true choice invite profound consideration.
As the American political landscape grows increasingly polarized and bitterly divided, the threat presented by third party spoiler candidates has become a critical issue requiring immediate attention and action. These fringe players, whether motivated by narrow self-interest or by radical ideological purposes, threaten to weaken the entire structure of representative government by fracturing the opposition, delivering unearned wins to their preferred major party candidates, and weakening public confidence in the integrity of the electoral process itself. We need to expose them for what they are, and reject their candidates thoroughly so they no longer can get away with trying to undermine the American democratic process. Our country is at stake.
Works Cited
Duverger, Maurice. Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State. Methuen, 1954.
Federal Election Commission. "Federal Elections 2016: Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives." 2017, https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf.
Federal Election Commission. "Federal Elections 2020: Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives." 2021,
Jackman, Simon. "Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies." American Political Science Review, vol. 81, no. 2, 1987, pp. 405–424.
Rae, Douglass. The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws. Yale University Press, 1967.
Winger, Richard. "Ralph Nader's 2000 Campaign." Ballot Access News, 1 Dec. 2001, http://www.ballot-access.org/2001/1201.html#7.
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