As we inch closer to November, many voters within the US have become increasingly unhappy with the two presumptive nominees of the dominant political parties, with almost half of registered voters willing to replace both candidates on the ballot [1]. This means both Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face major obstacles within their respective bases that they will need to overcome in order to secure the presidency. However, many voters have chosen to go a different route and reject the status quo outright by supporting a third-party candidate. With voters from both sides of the aisle turning to a new wave of candidates, it would be foolish to count out the major effect third parties could have on the 2024 election.
Third parties will play a major role in this upcoming election; however, not in the way one may think. One thing is very clear from a historical standpoint: it is virtually impossible for a third-party candidate to win the race for the US presidency. Our current electoral “winner takes all” system makes it extremely difficult for a third party to gain even one electoral vote, let alone the 270 needed to win the presidency. Our country largely functions as a two-party system; however, that doesn’t mean that third parties are to be entirely written off during elections. The impact they have may not be through winning, but they certainly do a great job at taking votes away from the dominant candidates, leading us to their relevance in 2024.
Many Americans are probably familiar with two major third parties: The Green Party and The Libertarian Party, both of whom have put forth candidates for the presidency this year. The Green Party and its frequent nominee Jill Stein, who is running again, have been credited by some democrats with costing Hillary Clinton the election in 2016, as Stein took votes away from Clinton in swing states like Pennsylvania, which then turned red. This is likewise becoming a concern for Democrats this year. As Biden and Trump are head to head in most swing states, Biden has the most to lose from Stein’s name on the ballot as he continues to face criticism over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Stein being a vocal supporter of the Free Palestine movement (even getting arrested alongside protestors at an encampment [2]) is attracting more and more of the Gen-Z vote, which could be a major factor in Biden potentially losing the swing states that once turned blue for him in 2020, mirroring what happened to Clinton in 2016.
However, we can’t talk about third-party candidates without mentioning the elephant in the room: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Running as an independent after dropping out of the race as a Democrat and being rejected by the Libertarian party, Kennedy is seen as a major player in this election. He may even become the first third-party candidate in decades to qualify for the Presidential Debate this month. Kennedy is being said to take voters away from both sides of the aisle; however, new polling suggests that Trump will be hit harder than Biden with RFK Jr on the ballot [3]. Alongside the former President’s numerous indictments, he recently was found guilty on 34 felony charges, which, despite what he is proclaiming on social media, may be what tips the scale against him for voters who were already suspicious of his candidacy. Polling conducted after his conviction shows that around 15% of Republican voters want Trump to drop his presidential bid [4]. While that doesn’t seem like much, the support Nikki Haley received from many Republicans and independents against Trump, those same voters may end up going to RFK Jr, negatively impacting Trump in the exact same swing states Biden may struggle in. Fortunately for both main-stage candidates, Kennedy is having trouble obtaining the requirements to appear on some states ballots, but that doesn’t mean they are entirely in the clear.
Biden and Trump will both be negatively impacted by third-party and independent candidates in this election, but it is too early to say who will take the biggest blow in November. However, we have to be honest with ourselves: third parties’ impact should not be counted out anymore. They affect the political climate in the United States despite their lack of ability to win the presidency. The thing is, many voters know this. They know that the person they are voting for can and will not win the election, so they utilize their vote as a form of “protest”, something that will be largely seen this year due to the displeasure with both main choices. The increase in popularization and interest these parties garner can be looked at as a reflection of the dismay Americans have towards the traditional two-party system, and can lead us to greater questions about our electoral system and its effectiveness for representing the people of the United States.
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