Polls can be accurate representations when they are taken— heavy on the can. However, they're not representative of current events, or, more importantly, the average moderate in America. The most important thing any American can offer concerning their political opinion is to cast a vote. In 2016, almost every media outlet: CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, to name a few, all called the election for Hillary Clinton. Days (even weeks) later, Donald Trump, the businessman-turned-politician received 304 electoral votes.
So, what's the problem with polls? First and foremost, they are only accurate to the moment they are taken. One particular example of this is the phenomenon of the October surprise— news that comes out in October, before the November election to influence voters. In 2016, that was Mrs. Clinton's personal email scandal, where it was revealed she received a debate question in advance, and that she had sent important emails on an unsecured account. Mr. Trump's October surprise was the infamous Hollywood Access tape, where he spoke candidly about sexually assaulting women. Both candidates' polling suffered, but news stations insisted that Clinton was leading the race.
The media also has an incredible impact on these polls, when they're released, and what the questions are about. Many billionaires own these media companies. Jeff Bezos has supported both Democratic and Republican campaigns and owns the Washington Post. Rupert Murdoch's ownership of NewsCorp includes Fox News. Political news that frequent these news organizations may have partisan influences.
Who is dispensing the poll matters immensely. When organizations such as Fox News and CNN share their polls, they are drawing from very partisan audiences. Polling has also fallen sharply in popularity. Many people don't want to answer polls anymore, which means that there is a new population of willing, partisan respondents.
And the people. Respondents may feel pressure to answer in certain ways, especially concerning racism and sexism, which they may espouse or refuse to express out of fear of how these are no longer socially acceptable stances. The United Kingdom is a victim of this— the Shy Tory who may in their real-life express support for the Liberal Party, state this in polls, will vote for the Conservative Party, as seen in their 1992 election.
Republicans, arguably, demonstrated an understanding of don't trust the polls. They were correct in believing that trust should be placed in the electoral voters, not the opinions of the general public's polls. Trump was said to be trailing behind Hillary up until the day of the election. Democrats appeared to learn this lesson in 2022 when they took back the Senate, even as so many organizations called many races as tossups.
So are polls entirely useless? Not necessarily. Look at the polls, but don't allow them to influence you. Politics is very much a revolving door, and new things about candidates come out, as Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump learned the hard way.
The most important thing any person can do to put their political opinion into real results is vote in all elections, not just general elections. If the fictional town of Daybreak, Texas, voted red in a local election, it's a pretty safe bet to assume that they will vote the same way in a general election, as compared to a poll. As mentioned before, partisan respondents have an impact on polling. This means that people on opposite poles of political parties (left-wing and right-wing) have an unnatural sway on the information provided to people.
My advice? Do your research. Don't let public opinion have a deciding factor of who you vote for President. And of course, vote.
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